21 Since they had been without food for a long time, Paul stood up among them and said, “Men, you should have listened to me and not have set sail from Crete and incurred this injury and loss. 22 Yet now I urge you to take heart, for there will be no loss of life among you, but only of the ship. 23 For this very night there stood before me an angel of the God to whom I belong and whom I worship, 24 and he said, ‘Do not be afraid, Paul; you must stand before Caesar. And behold, God has granted you all those who sail with you.’ 25 So take heart, men, for I have faith in God that it will be exactly as I have been told. 26 But we must run aground on some island.”
In his book "Good to Great", Jim Collins writes about what he calls "the Stockdale Paradox". Admiral James Stockdale was a Navy pilot shot down and taken prisoner in North Vietnam. He was beaten and tortured and subjected to all manner psychological abuse, before finally being released after 8 years of imprisonment.
Stockdale said that while he was captive, enduring months of solitary confinement and separated from his wife and loved ones for almost a full decade, he yet never doubted that he would survive.
But there was something surprising about the ones that did not survive, Stockdale said. They were the optimists. In Stockdale's words:
“They were the ones who said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart.”
And so here we have what Collins called the Stockdale Paradox, that you "must retain faith that you will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties. AND at the same time . . .You must confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be."
The ship is engulfed in the storm. The ship itself will sink and all the cargo will be lost with it. These are the "brutal facts" of their reality which Paul helps them to confront. These facts are sobering and hard to hear. They're not for optimists. They're absolutely terrifying in fact.
Apparently the "Stockdale Paradox" is the very same as the "Paul Paradox":
Salvation is not near at hand. All will be lost. And yet, there is still good news. The people will be spared.
And here is the difference between optimism and hope.
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